The general belief that “finance” is a crucial component of economic growth has been reinforced by the growing significance of financial markets around the world. As a result, the focus has continued to be on stock market expansion and economic growth.
The stock market, as a key economic pillar, has a significant impact on the development of business and industry, which has a significant impact on the overall health of the nation’s economy.
This is the justification for why the country’s central bank, government advisors, and business organisations all closely monitor the actions of the stock market.
The economy and stock market are frequently discussed concurrently, giving the impression that they may be the same thing. The stock market and the economy have never had a reliable relationship. Just to be clear, the economy is not the stock market. Even though they generally move in the same direction over the long term.
Investors can buy and sell investments on the stock market, most frequently stocks, which are ownership shares in public companies. When discussing the stock market, people frequently use one of the important indexes, such as the Nifty 50.
This is because it is challenging to keep track of every stock and because these indexes are thought to accurately reflect the entire market.
The connection between production and consumption activities, which controls how resources are distributed, is the economy. The purpose of producing goods and services is to meet the demands of consumers. This, to put it simply, is our economic system.
To understand stock market prices and their future trends, investors and traders frequently scan the economic data. Additionally, some monitor market indices to get a sense of the state of the economy.
Generally speaking, but not always, the stock market and economy move in lockstep with one another. Due to market volatility, it is possible for stock prices to fall in good economic times as well as rise in bad ones.
The stock market prices are likely to reflect the same sentiment if the GDP is increasing and the economy appears to be improving, though not always in the short term.
It is reasonable to assert that the markets do not always accurately reflect the state of the economy because the stock markets react quickly, if sharply, to events that may have little long-term significance. The markets are frequently criticised by traders and investors for “overreacting” or for “not properly accounting for a particular move.”
In fact, several factors that don’t directly affect the country’s economy can have an impact on the markets.
For instance, the economy may not necessarily be affected by geopolitics, natural disasters, interest rates, or tax rates, but they all influence stock prices. Like how any change to the law that could have an impact on dividends or share buybacks would have an impact on share prices but not GDP.
High expectations that are already reflected in stock prices before they have any effect on the economy are another factor that can cause discrepancy in the markets and economy. As a result, when the overall economy grows, the markets do not soar because stock prices already take into account investor sentiment.
It is undeniable that, over time, the economy as well as markets tend to trend in the same general direction. However, the financial markets tend to react in an extreme way (on either side) to news events and policy reports that might not have any bearing on a nation’s macroeconomic fundamentals.
Understanding how the stock market and economy interact can help you as an investor process economic news and maintain your long-term perspective. To reduce the risks brought on by the highs and lows of economic and market cycles, it is crucial to diversify your portfolio well across a variety of asset classes.
This can assist you in avoiding the common pitfalls investors make and make it simpler to stay the course through all market conditions.
(The author is Vice President, Bonanza Portfolio)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)