Montreal: US President Donald Trump has defended his proposed tariffs on Canadian goods, arguing they are necessary to address issues related to migrants and drug trafficking at the northern border. He has also described cross-border trade as a US subsidy and suggested that Canada would not be “viable as a country” without economic ties to the United States. Furthermore, he has reiterated his view that Canada should become the 51st US state.
However, According to reports, many of Trump’s statements about Canada’s economy, trade relationship, and border security are inaccurate or exaggerated. Official data contradicts his claims about trade deficits, American banks, and illegal drug and migrant flows from Canada.
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Claim: Canada gets 95 percent of its products from the US
Trump has asserted that Canada receives 95 percent of its “product” from the United States. However, data from Statistics Canada contradicts this claim.
In 2024, 62.2 percent of Canada’s total imports came from the United States, according to the federal agency. University of Toronto economist Joseph Steinberg pointed out that “a lot of what Canadian consumers buy is produced domestically,” meaning the 95 percent figure only makes sense if Trump was solely referring to imports.
“If we… focus on imports, does the US account for 95 percent? Not quite, although it is a really high number,” Steinberg said.
Statistics Canada also reported that 75.9 percent of Canada’s exports went to the United States last year, underscoring the strong but not exclusive trade relationship between the two nations.
Claim: The US has a $200-$250 billion trade deficit with Canada
Trump has also claimed that the United States runs a trade deficit of $200 billion to $250 billion with Canada. However, this figure is significantly inflated.
Data from the United States Trade Representative and the US Census Bureau put the actual trade deficit with Canada at $63.3 billion at the end of 2024. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada reported its trade surplus with the United States at Can$102.3 billion ($70.3 billion).
Steinberg noted that trade deficits do not equate to subsidies, contradicting Trump’s assertion that the US is financially supporting Canada’s economy.
“International trade is a mutually beneficial transaction,” Steinberg explained.
“The United States pays Canada for products, it wouldn’t pay Canada for those products if it didn’t feel that it was worth it in this case.”
One major factor in the trade deficit is the US purchase of Canadian oil, he added.
Claim: US banks are not allowed to operate in Canada
Trump has claimed in social media posts that “American banks are not allowed to do business in Canada.” However, this statement is false.
Foreign banks, including those from the US, are regulated by Canada’s federal Bank Act. The Canadian Bankers Association confirmed that “there are 16 US-based bank subsidiaries and branches with around Can$113 billion in assets currently operating in Canada.”
Prominent American financial institutions such as JP Morgan Chase, CitiBank, and Bank of America have offices in major Canadian cities.
Claim: Large numbers of migrants and fentanyl flow into the US from Canada
Trump has also asserted that undocumented migrants and fentanyl are entering the United States from Canada in large numbers. However, available data does not support this claim.
Kelly Sundberg, a criminologist at Mount Royal University in Calgary, stated that there is no evidence of large-scale fentanyl smuggling from Canada to the US.
“Data shows less than one percent of the killer opioid that enters the United States came from Canada,” he said.
According to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), out of over 21,800 pounds (9,900 kilograms) of fentanyl intercepted by agents in the 2024 fiscal year, only 43 pounds were seized near the northern border.
Regarding illegal immigration, CBP reported that US border patrol agents apprehended 23,721 people crossing from Canada in fiscal year 2024. In contrast, more than 1.5 million undocumented migrants were encountered at the US-Mexico border during the same period.
Sundberg argued that Canada faces a greater threat from the US than vice versa when it comes to crime-related concerns.
“Canada is under greater threat from the United States than the United States is from Canada for most things — guns, drugs (and) illegal immigrants,” he said.
He also noted that Canada’s more relaxed drug laws might contribute to an exaggerated perception of drug smuggling into the US.