BATON ROUGE, La. (Louisiana First) — While the 2025 hurricane season is continuing on its yearly downward trend, it isn’t completely over. Currently, we are monitoring a tropical wave, now called Invest 98, actively heading towards the Caribbean Sea.
Per the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the wave has a low, 30% chance of development within the next 2 days but a high, 70% chance of development within the next week.
What does that mean for the Capitol Region? At the moment, not much. It’s still a bit early in the forecast to start pointing in a direction as to where the wave, likely going to be the named storm Melissa, is headed.
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The system lacks a closed area of circulation, which can make it difficult to figure out where the storm’s center will be, thus also hindering forecast track accuracy. That said, radar and satellite imagery are both showing indications of convective thunderstorm activity that will lead to the system as a whole becoming better organized.
Per the NHC, the cluster of thunderstorms is at a cruising speed of 20-25 mph, trekking westward. The quick pace could do more harm than good regarding the storm becoming better organized in the short term.
It will likely develop into a tropical depression towards the middle or later half of this upcoming work week. Intensity forecasts are still a bit iffy regarding how strong this eventual storm will be.
As always, we will keep you updated on its development through the upcoming week.
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