A major Social Security announcement may be delayed amid shutdown

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Millions of Social Security beneficiaries could face an unexpected waiting game this fall. The annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), normally unveiled each October, is at risk of delay if the ongoing federal government shutdown remains unresolved, Reuters reported.

According to AARP, under the usual schedule, the Social Security Administration (SSA) publishes the COLA on or around Oct. 15, with the increase taking effect in December’s benefit payments (and reflected in January disbursements for many recipients). But because the COLA calculation depends on inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), notably the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), the shutdown’s disruption of BLS operations may stall the process.

CBS News reported key inflation data from September are essential to determining the new COLA. But with many BLS employees furloughed or operating under shutdown constraints, that data may arrive late, if at all. Even if the government reopens soon, analysts warned there likely won’t be enough time to crunch the numbers and publish a reliably calculated increase by the usual mid-October window.

Despite the uncertainty, SSA has assured beneficiaries that their current benefits will continue uninterrupted. The agency’s contingency plan designates Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments as being funded outside the annual appropriations process.

Still, administrative services may suffer. SSA field offices have already announced reduced capabilities during the shutdown: proof of income letters, earnings record corrections and new Medicare card issuance are among the services expected to be suspended until funding is restored, SSA said.

What to watch for next:

• If the shutdown ends quickly, inflation data processing could still drag past Oct. 15, pushing the COLA announcement into late October or November.
• Should Congress’ impasse continue until year’s end, there is a small chance the COLA’s effective date could be pushed — though economists view that scenario as unlikely.
• Advocacy groups are forecasting a 2026 COLA around 2.7%, up from the 2.5% rise enacted for 2025.

While your checks will still arrive, you may not know exactly what your new benefit will be, or when, until the shutdown ends.

This story was written with the assistance of AI.