September 30, 2024

Australian Dollar Forecast: Outlook Bullish on Housing Credit and China PMI Forecasts

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Powell’s comments will likely have more influence on the US dollar than Monday’s US economic data. Economists expect modest increases in the Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.

Short-Term Forecast for AUD/USD

Near-term AUD/USD trends could depend on China’s policy maneuvers, Aussie data, and the US labor market stats. Further policy easing from Beijing and upbeat Aussie data could reduce expectations of a Q4 2024 RBA rate cut.

Conversely, softer US labor market data and support for a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut could narrow the interest rate differential between the US and Australia, potentially pushing the AUD/USD toward $0.70.

Investors should closely monitor central bank signals and economic indicators, which could influence AUD/USD trends. Traders should monitor real-time data, news updates, and expert commentary to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Daily Chart and the AUD/USD Breakout

The AUD/USD remains comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bullish price trends.

A return to the September 27 high of $0.69368 could support a move toward the $0.69500 level. Furthermore, a breakout from $0.69500 could give the bulls a run at $0.70.

Traders should consider central bank commentary and economic data from China, which may influence AUD/USD price movements.

Conversely, a fall through $0.68500 could signal a drop toward the $0.68006 support level. A break below the $0.68006 support level could give the bears a run at the $0.67500 level.

With a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 65.13, the Aussie dollar could return to $0.6938 before entering overbought territory.

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