Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index were up for the second consecutive week. Nifty and Sensex rose about 1.6 per cent each. The indices are coming close to their crucial resistance. We will have to wait and see if the much-awaited bullish breakout is happening this time or not.
The Nifty Bank index, on the other hand, was up 1.8 per cent. The price action last week confirms the bullish inverted head and shoulder pattern we had indicated last week. This keeps the door open for the Nifty Bank index to rise more from here.
Among the sectors, the BSE IT index surged the most last week. It was up 4.28 per cent.
FPIs buy
The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned net buyers after selling heavily for two consecutive weeks. The quantum of inflow was small though. The equity segment saw a net inflow of about $197 million last week.
Nifty (25,285.35)
Short-term view: Immediate resistance is at 25,450 which can be tested this week. A decisive break above 25,450 can boost the bullish momentum. Such a break can take the Nifty up to 25,800 and 26,100-26,200.
Failure to breach 25,450 can drag the Nifty down to 25,000 or 24,600-24,500 again. The index will come under danger of seeing 24,100-24,000 only if it declines below 24,500. But that looks unlikely.
Medium-term view: The broader bullish view remains intact. We retain the view of the Nifty targeting 28,000-29,000 in the medium term and 31,000 in the long term. A breakout above 26,200 will clear the way for this rally.
The 24,000-23,500 region will remain as the strong support. Nifty has to break 23,500 and then fall subsequently below 23,000 to become bearish. Only then it can see 22,000-21,500 on the downside.
Video Credit: Businessline
Nifty Bank (56,609.75)
Short-term view: The outlook is bullish with a confirmed inverted head and shoulder pattern. Supports are at 55,700 and 55,400. The Nifty Bank index can rise to 58,200-58,500 first and then to 59,000 eventually.
The region between 55,000 and 54,500 is a strong support zone. A fall below 54,500 is needed to turn the short-term picture negative.
Medium-term view: The outlook remains bullish. Strong support is in the 54,000-53,500 region. The rise to 59,000 that we have mentioned can happen now. From a long-term term perspective, the Nifty Bank index has the potential to target 61,000-62,000.
Intermediate resistance is around 60,000. A corrective fall from here to 59,000-58,000 is a possibility before the index targets 61,000-62,000.
Sensex (82,500.82)
Short-term view: The immediate picture is positive. Support is in the 81,700-81,500 region. Sensex can rise to 83,200-83,500 from here. The price action thereafter will need a close watch.
A decisive break above 83,500 will strengthen the momentum. Such a break can take the Sensex up to 84,000 initially. A further break above 84,000 will then clear the way for a rise to 85,300-85,500.
If Sensex fails to breach 83,500, and declines below 82,200, then a fall back to 80,200-80,000 can be seen again.
Medium-term view: The broader uptrend is intact. There is no change in our bullish view of the Sensex targeting 88,000-89,000 in the medium term and 91,000-92,000 in the long term.
Cluster of supports are there in the broad 78,000-77,000 region. Sensex has to fall below 77,000 to turn the outlook bearish and negate our bullish view.
Nifty Midcap 150 (21,743.95)
The Nifty Midcap 150 index is moving up within its range. As mentioned last week, 20,600-22,100 has been the trading range for more than four months now.
Intermediate support is in the 21,500-21,350 region. There is a good chance we see a rise to 21,900-22,100 in a week or two. Failure to breach 22,100 will continue to keep the sideways range intact. It will then drag the index down to 21,600-21,400 initially and then further lower eventually.
A decisive breakout above 22,100 can boost the bullish momentum. It will also confirm the bullish inverted head and shoulder pattern on the chart. Such a break will then clear the way for the Nifty Midcap 150 index to target 23,000-23,500 in the medium term and 25,000-25,500 in the long term.
The region around 20,000 is a strong support. The index has to decline below this support to negate the aforementioned bullish view and turn the outlook bearish.
Nifty Smallcap 250 (17,112.75)
The Nifty Smallcap 250 index remains higher but stable all through the week. Immediate resistance is at 17,170. A break above it can take the index up to 17,350 – an important short-term resistance. A decisive break above 17,350 can strengthen the momentum. Such a break will then see the Nifty Smallcap 250 index rising towards 18,000-18,100.
From a big picture, a decisive break above 18,100 will confirm the bullish head and shoulder pattern. That in turn will trigger a rally to 20,000 in the medium term and 21,500-22,200 in the long term.
The region between 16,700 and 16,500 is a crucial support zone. The bullish view will go wrong only if the index declines below 16,500. Such a scenario, though unlikely, can drag the index down to 16,000-15,500.
Published on October 11, 2025