Live updates: Wall Street slips from record high on tariff worries, ASX set for doldrums

Thanks for the comment Alex and good question — according to the Federal Reserve, it’s far from a simple project.

The Trump administration has raised the cost blow-out of the renovation as a potential reason Fed chair Jerome Powell could be fired “for cause”, but the central bank has said it was more asbestos removal, less water features and VIP areas that led to the overrun.

Here’s a wrap of their response from Reuters:

The Fed on Friday appeared to rebut some of Vought’s claims in a ‘Frequently Asked Questions’ posting about the project, describing it as the first complete renovation of the buildings since their construction in the 1930s, including removing lead contamination and more asbestos than initially anticipated.

It shows pictures of leaky pipes and roofs and notes that costs have risen due to increased material, equipment and labour costs.

It denied assertions that there were VIP dining rooms or elevators being installed. The project will have a “green roof” using plants to help manage water runoff and aid with heating and cooling, as many other federal buildings have used for decades but no terrace access.

“There are no new water features, there’s no beehives, and there’s no roof terrace gardens,” Mr Powell told US senators in testimony in June, denying excessive spending on the project.

Powell said the almost 90-year-old headquarters “was not really safe, and it was not waterproof” while acknowledging cost overruns.

The Fed has said that the project, which includes upgrades to an adjacent building, will consolidate staff into a single campus and reduce off-site lease costs. As of February, a Fed Inspector General report estimated that costs had risen to $US2.4 billion ($3.7 billion) from an estimate of $US1.9 billion two years earlier, a $US500 million increase.

Thanks Matt, we managed to address your issue at 14.17.29 pm AEST, two minutes before your comment. As with comedy, timing is everything in blogging. Come to think of it, blogging is weird and largely unfunny subset of comedy.

News that the authoritative and independent International Energy Agency described the oil market as “tight” saw the global benchmark Brent crude index jump by 2.5% above $US70, a level it has held to today.

However, that “tight” description needs a more nuanced look, given the IEA’s broader forecast for weak demand growth and an upgrade in supply forecasts.

The IEA forecasts global oil consumption to increase by only 0.70million barrels/day (mb/d) this year which would mark the lowest increase since 2009, excluding the 2020 COVID impacted year.

On the supply side, the IEA forecasts production to increase by 2.1mb/d in 2025 and 1.3mb/d in 2026.

The current tightness could soon be replaced by price crushing over supply in a matter of months.

“Refinery activity, which picks up from May to August as seasonal demand typically rises in the Northern Hemisphere summer period, helps explain the current tightness in the market,” CBA’s mining and energy commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said.

“But if the IEA’s projections hold true, then oversupply conditions may emerge as early as September, as a drop off in refinery activity coincides with another potential strong increase in OPEC+ supply.

“The IEA’s projections suggest a substantial increase in stockpiles in Q4 2025 (+2mb/d) and Q1 2026 (+3mb/d).”

Mr Dhar said these increases are consistent with Brent oil futures falling to $US63/bbl in Q4 2025.

“For now, oil markets are waiting to see whether US President Trump’s threats against Russia will amount to stricter US sanctions on Russia’s exports of oil (~4.5% of global demand) and oil products (~2.5% of global oil demand), Mr Dhar said.

“The stricter sanctions reflect US President Trump’s growing frustrations with Russia’s President Putin over the Ukraine war.

“(They) could potentially include a 500% increase in US tariffs for any buyers of Russian energy.”

India and China have typically accounted for 55 65% and 35% 45% of Russia’s oil seaborne exports over the last year respectively.

“It’s worth noting that US efforts to reduce Russian oil shipments have failed in the past, with the most recent attempt taking place in January 2025 by the Biden Administration, suggesting that Russia’s ability to sidestep sanctions can’t be underestimated,” Mr Dhar said.

Bitcoin’s recent rampage continues unabated with the world’s largest cryptocurrency, pushing through the $US120,000 mark for the first time in history on Monday.

The digital currency, which has gained more than 29% for the year thus far, traded 1.4% higher at $120,670 at 2:10pm AEST.

It has bounced 20% in just a couple of weeks since it dipped below $US100,000 on June 22.

China’s exports have accelerated again ahead of yet another tariff deadline from the US.

Outbound shipments rose by 5.8% year-on-year in June, up from the 4.8% growth in May.

Imports also rebounded, up 1.1% (yoy), having declined by more than 3% in May.

Overall, China’s 12-month surplus with the rest of the world hit $US115 billion — a new record high.

Much of the surge is attributed to exporters pushing goods onto ships to beat looming, but constantly delayed tariff deadlines.

The most recent deadline for China to reach a trade agreement with the US has now been pushed out to August 12.

However, fears that third party countries such as Vietnam, which handles Chinese shipments could face 40% tariffs, remains a concern for exporters and US consumers alike.

Additionally, China’s alliance with the BRICs nations — a group particularly disliked by Mr Trump — could see it hit with another 10% on top of everything else.

 The ASX 200 is flat — well, marginally lower, down just 0.1 point to be exact— heading into the afternoon session (12:40pm AEST).

Mining and energy stocks are generally stronger, acting as a counterweight to weaker banking, healthcare and industrial stocks.

The big miners BHP (+1.4%) , Rio Tinto (+1.3%) and Fortescue (+0.2%) have all been supported by higher iron ore prices

While Woodside (+0.2%) and Santos (+0.5%) have benefited from stronger oil prices and the IEA’s view that supply is tight, the big winners in the energy sector today are the uranium miners.

The retail banks, bar NAB (+0.2%) have not been in favour with ANZ down 0.7%.

Investment bank Macquarie has gained 0.4%.

Clarity Pharmaceuticals, which has struggled this year with its value almost halving, is having a better day and is the ASX 200’s biggest winner today.

Macquarie Technology is also in demand after announcing it planned to expand its data centre footprint.

South 32 is the biggest loser after flagging problems at its Mozambique aluminium smelter could hurt it its bottom line.

The ASX 200 clawed back earlier losses to eke out a small gain at midday.

It’s now basically flat (just 2 points below its opening level), with winners and losers evenly spread across the 200 stocks on the index.

The subject heads in the incoming government brief, accidentally released to the ABC in response to a Freedom of Information (FOI) request, show that Treasury has modelled four different “trade, uncertainty and financial market disruption” scenarios.

These range from “escalating tariff”, through “uncertainty”, to “financial disruption” and ultimately “worst case”.

We know from the subheadings that the “financial disruption scenario” includes some discussion of a potential 200 basis point increase in US sovereign risk and “Fed loss of independence”.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says his department is just doing its job well by modelling such scenarios, even if they are unlikely.

“I welcome and I encourage the Treasury to think about best and worst-case scenarios,” he tells reporters.

“I believe if you consider worst-case scenarios, it gives you a better chance to work through them if they eventuate. So the approach we took in the global financial crisis, it’s the approach we take now.

“We’ve got to recognise this is the fourth big economic shock in less than two decades. It would be strange if Treasury wasn’t advising me on the worst-case scenarios, whether it’s about bond markets in the US, currency exchanges, or other challenges to the global system.

“As I made clear at the very beginning, you know, this global economic uncertainty is really the primary influence on the government’s second term. It’s the thing that is most likely to constrain our choices and guide our and shape our choices.

“And so I think what you’re seeing in those headings released under the FOI is really the Treasury’s best attempt at working out a whole range of scenarios. I appreciate that. I’m grateful for that work that they do because it helps me think through various scenarios, even if we think that the chances of that happening are remote.”

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

Political reporter Courtney Gould and other colleagues in the press gallery are on top of all of today’s political developments.

And there are a lot. From the treasurer’s response to his department’s accidental release of information from the incoming government brief that it had intended to keep confidential, to the prime minister’s visit to China.

You can stay across it all on the politics live blog.

Asked about the prospect of broadening, increasing or otherwise changing the GST as part of efforts to raise revenue to sustainably repair the budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers says he will welcome all ideas at the upcoming “reform roundtable“.

However, he also points out that both he and the prime minister have repeatedly said in the past that they don’t support a GST increase.

Mr Chalmers says he does want to see a broad range of suggestions about tax at the roundtable.

“We are interested in ways to simplify the tax system,” he says.

“When we speak with tax experts and people that have a view about tax reform, they’re interested in efficiency and equity and simplicity, and other design principles like that. So ideally people will come with views about how we simplify the tax system.”

Asked about the accidental release of subject headings in a Freedom of Information request for the incoming government brief, which Treasury had intended to redact, Treasurer Jim Chalmers tells reporters he isn’t too worried.

“I’m pretty relaxed about it, to be honest, because, of course, Treasury provides advice for incoming governments and no government typically goes into the detail of that,” he responds.

“The other reason I’m pretty relaxed about it is we have already made it really clear that we will need to do more to meet our housing targets. We have already made it really clear that we will do more to make our economy more productive and more resilient. We have made it clear that we need to build on the progress we have made in repairing the budget so that we can make the budget even more sustainable.

“So the priorities which are being reported today … those are the sorts of things that I have mentioned before including at the national Press Club.”

Nothing new to see here, says the treasurer.

The treasurer has told a media briefing that he’ll hold a series of bilateral meetings when he travels to the G20 finance ministers meeting later this week.

“I’ll be heading to Durban this week, later in the week, for meetings on Thursday and Friday,” he said.

“I’ll be participating in G20 discussions, but also meeting directly with my counterparts from Indonesia, Japan, Canada, the UK, and Germany.

“And my focus at the G20 will be on strengthening economic ties, but also with the particular focus on capital flows, on supply chains, on critical minerals, and also dealing with the structural issues in our own economies.”

Treasury briefing notes for the re-elected Labor government, accidently included in a Freedom of Information (FOI) release to the ABC, show the Albanese government was advised the budget cannot be fixed without raising taxes and cutting spending, and that its housing target is unachievable.

Business reporter Daniel Ziffer lodged the FOI request for the incoming government brief, which initially appeared to be not much. But when Dan received requests to urgently delete the document, the ABC took a closer look.

Read Dan’s analysis about what the documents revealed and why the brief should give Australians confidence that Treasury is having fearless and tough conversations with government decision-makers:

• ASX 200: -0.2% to 8,563 points (live values below)
• Australian dollar: +0.1% to 65.85 US cents
• Wall Street (Friday): S&P500 -0.3%, Dow -0.6%, Nasdaq -0.2%
• Europe (Friday): DAX -0.8%, FTSE -0.4, Eurostoxx -1.0%
• Spot gold: +0.5% at $US3,371/ounce
• Brent crude: +0.1% to $US 70.46/barrel
• Iron ore: +0.5% to $US98.25/tonne
• Bitcoin: +0.1% at $US119,263

Prices current around 10:40am AEST

Live updates from major ASX indices:

Over the weekend, we heard more about Donald Trump’s looming tariffs, with the European Union and Mexico next on the hit list. The US president said he would impose a 30 per cent tariff on the regions from August 1.

As the local share market and markets in Asia start trading for the week, the sentiment is negative.

The ASX 200 is down 0.1 per cent, while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 is off a third of a per cent.

US stock futures are also in the red.

Here’s how the ASX 200 sectors are faring so far — as you can see, energy stocks are helping to limit the losses:

Here are the worst falls so far:

• Zip Co -5.9%
• Block -5.3%
• South32 -3.9%
• Iluka Resources -3.3%
• Light & Wonder -3.2%

And the best-performing stocks:

• Macquarie Technology Group +6.3%
• Deep Yellow +4%
• Vault Minerals +3.2%
• Helia Group +2.8%
• Paladin Energy +2.7%

The trading week is underway and it’s a fairly lacklustre start so far — the ASX 200 is down 0.1 per cent just a few minutes in.

Donald Trump spoke to reporters on the tarmac in Maryland a short time ago and did not miss the opportunity to say it’d be great if the Federal Reserve chair resigned.

“I hope he quits,” the US president said of Jerome Powell, extending his prolonged attack on the central bank boss.

It follows comments by White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett over the weekend. Mr Hassett said the president had the authority to fire the Fed chair “for cause”.

The potential cause the Trump administration is looking into a cost overrun on renovations of the Fed’s Washington DC headquarters.

Mr Hassett said the Fed “has a lot to answer for” on the reported $US700 million overspend.

White House budget director Russ Vought sent questions to Mr Powell about the renovation, which he compared on X to the Palace of Versailles:

Reporting with Reuters

Donald Trump’s signature spending bill is set to reverse America’s course on renewables, making it cheaper to drill and mine fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, as the US slashes incentives for solar, wind and electric vehicles, China is accelerating its energy transition, as Alan Kohler explains:

Loading…

With Donald Trump flagging the possibility of 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico from August 1 unless a trade deal is struck in the interim, the market reaction again looks like it may be relatively muted.

Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth says traders are taking a big risk by being so relaxed about tariffs.

“The lack of reaction to this week’s tariff déjà vu is presumably because Trump now has a reputation for backing down from his aggressive tariff threats,” he noted over the weekend.

“But that creates a dangerous circularity, since the main reason Trump was forced to shelve his Liberation Day plans originally was because of the sell-off in not only the equity market but the Treasury market too. Without that pressure, Trump may feel more emboldened to follow through this time, particularly since up to now at least tariffs appear to have had little impact on final consumer goods prices and claims the economy would be plunged into recession have been proven wrong.

“On balance, we still expect Trump to agree new deals with the main remaining trading partners over the next few months namely the EU, China, Canada & Mexico. But there is also another scenario where Trump doesn’t back down, triggering a more significant stagflationary outcome.”

So, it’s possible the market’s own confidence that Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) will give the US president the confident he needs to stay the course.

There is a real risk the cream from the TACO trade could turn very sour indeed.