Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD) reports fourth-quarter results on Tuesday after the US market closes, and Wedbush Securities has a pointed question heading into the numbers: When will investor sentiment actually shift?
The US broker maintains its outperform rating and $230 price target, against a current share price of around $190. It fully expects Nvidia to beat estimates and guide above Street expectations, pointing to a set of data points that make the outcome feel close to predetermined.
Hyperscale capital expenditure forecasts for 2026 have ballooned well beyond earlier projections, with Amazon guiding to 50% spending growth, Meta closer to 75% and Alphabet flagging increases of as much as 100%, according to Wedbush.
Neocloud and model builder spending is growing even faster from a smaller base, with CoreWeave alone intending to more than double its capital spending this year.
Supply chain signals are similarly supportive. Taiwan-based vendors tied to Nvidia reported solid fourth-quarter results and healthy January sales, while Super Micro Computer guided its next quarter higher, implying strength beyond the hyperscalers.
Wedbush’s own estimates assume revenue growth of 66% year on year for Nvidia’s fiscal 2026, with the data centre division forecast to generate nearly $191 billion, according to the note. The broker has a fiscal 2027 EPS estimate of $7.23, to which it applies a 32 times multiple to arrive at its target.
The reason sentiment has not shifted further is well understood: ASIC competition, concerns about data centre financing, and the echoes of the DeepSeek scare earlier this year have each taken turns weighing on the stock.
Wedbush draws a direct parallel with early 2025, when similar anxieties faded as the numbers kept coming in strong. Its central argument is that the same pattern will repeat.
The GTC developer conference in March may matter as much as Tuesday’s print.