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postStocks fell slightly during the final trading session of an eventful 2025 that saw the S&P 500 clinch a third-straight double-digit gain and the Nasdaq rise more than 20% for the third year in a row.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), S&P 500 (^GSPC), and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) all lost around 0.7% on Wednesday, dimming hopes of a Santa Claus rally.
For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 rose over 16%, marking its sixth year of 15%-plus gains over the past seven. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite paced gains with a 20% rise, while the blue-chip Dow gained roughly 13%.
Tech (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stocks fueled the gains this year over AI optimism. Tech giant Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) outperformed the “Magnificent 7” group, rising 65% in 2025. AI chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA) followed in second place, rising 39%.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) hit a record high — then fell more than 30%. Gold (GC=F) enjoyed its best year since 1979. The price of silver (SI=F) more than doubled.
The year was not without challenges.
The Nasdaq briefly entered a bear market a little over eight months ago, and the S&P stood on the brink of one, after President Trump imposed his most sweeping tariffs in April before largely backtracking.
Wall Street didn’t look back from there, despite blips amid concerns over those tariffs, as well as geopolitical developments, the health of the US economy, and — perhaps most of all — soaring AI-fueled valuations.
The outlook for 2026 calls for more optimism. Every Wall Street forecaster tracked by Bloomberg is predicting that stocks will rally for a fourth consecutive year. But plenty of risks remain: The AI boom could falter, the economy could surprise, and the US president remains a wild card.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate path is also in focus into next year, with the divisions that have gripped the central bank in 2025 likely to continue — and with a new chair set to replace Jerome Powell by mid-year. Minutes from the central bank’s December meeting, released Tuesday, showed this month’s decision was a close call — and that many officials felt it could be “some time” before another rate cut. Overall, 85% of bets for January’s meeting are on the Fed holding steady at current levels.
The stock market is closed Thursday, Jan. 1, and will reopen on Friday. Happy New Year!
LIVE 15 updates
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Stocks sputter in last day of trading but Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq post double-digit gains in 2025
Stocks declined for a fourth day in a row but capped a year of double-digit percentage gains for all three major averages.
The blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 13% for the year, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 16%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose a whopping 20% this past year as tech led the markets higher.
Tech stocks (XLK) gained nearly 24% followed by Communications Services (XLC), up 21%.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) capped a year defined by record highs and a dramatic crash, down 6% for the year.
Meanwhile, gold (GC=F) enjoyed its best year since 1979. The price of silver (SI=F) also more than doubled this year.
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Warren Buffett is stepping down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO. It’s one of several big C-suite shake-ups in 2026.
Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma reports:
Read more here.
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Bitcoin on pace to end the year negative, but a bounce could be in the cards for January
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was headed for a third straight month of losses on Wednesday, capping a year defined by record highs and a dramatic crash.
On the last trading day of the year, the token hovered near $88,000, after weeks of trading in a tight range.
Still, a bounce could be in the cards as early as next month.
Earlier this week, crypto research firm 10X Research suggested technical indicators show bitcoin’s “downtrend remains in place but likely flipping to bullish in January.”
Read more here.
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Wall Street reflects on Warren Buffett’s wisdom
Be a good person and buy boring stocks. That was some of the wisdom Wall Street money managers said legendary investor Warren Buffett imparted to them.
Today, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) CEO Warren Buffett, 95, officially hands the reins over to his hand-picked successor Greg Abel. Known for his shrewd value investing ethos and pithy commentary at shareholder meetings, Buffett inspired generations of money managers up and down Wall Street.
Here’s what some of them told Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi about the lessons they have taken away from the “Oracle of Omaha.”
Read more here.
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Clean energy stocks outperformed in 2025 despite tougher rhetoric
In an unexpected turn of events, clean energy stocks boomed in 2025.
The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN), which tracks 100 clean energy-related companies, has gained 43% this year, compared to a roughly 17% gain for the S&P 500 (^GSPC).
That outperformance showed a sector more resilient than was suggested by downbeat sentiment heading into President Trump’s second term, as strategists expected Trump 2.0 to dismantle the clean energy policies championed by former President Biden.
And there were setbacks. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act stripped away electric vehicle tax credits and sped up the phaseout of other clean energy incentives. Tariffs sent prices for essential materials higher. China’s rare earth controls issued as part of the tit-for-tat trade dispute with the US shocked the sector. Shares of Danish renewables company Ørsted (DNNGY) dropped 50% year to date after Trump suspended lease contracts for five of its offshore wind farms in the US.
But the reality of many of the policy changes wasn’t as severe as the rhetoric implied. Expanding energy demand and electricity usage, driven in part by data centers, also helped offset the green backlash and attract new investments in the sector.
Bloom Energy (BE), which makes fuel cells, soared a stunning 293% since the beginning of the year. SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) climbed 114%. First Solar (FSLR) added 49%.
In a Dec. 8 note, JPMorgan’s Mark Strouse and Michael Fairbanks noted that they expect the outperformance to continue in the utility-scale renewables market, though they also expect the sector to consolidate as projects and regulation become more complex.
Claiming a bias toward stocks with significant exposure to US-based manufacturing and diversified end markets, their top picks for 2026 include GE Vernova (GEV), which rose roughly 100% in 2025, along with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) and Nextpower (NXT).
“While investor sentiment for renewables has improved … given improved US regulatory clarity and accelerating power demand, we note that there are potential risks still lingering such as initial FEOC guidelines, possible Department of Interior permitting delays, AD/CVD and/or Section 232 tariffs, etc.,” the JPMorgan analysts wrote.
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Mortgage rates end 2025 at fresh low, giving buyers an ‘encouraging sign’ into new year
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Bitcoin headed for yearly loss, but analysts see room for a reversal
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is headed for its third month of losses in a row, putting bitcoin on track to finish the year with a negative return. But the coin has room for a reversal, with odds looking likely for a flip in January, analysts told Yahoo Finance.
Our Ines Ferre reports:
Read more here.
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Trump Media & Technology to distribute digital tokens to shareholders with “various rewards”
Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) picked up more than 4% in mid-morning trading on Wednesday after the company announced it would be distributing new digital tokens to shareholders.
The company has partnered with Crypto.com to distribute the tokens, which will operate on the Cronos blockchain, according to the press release announcing the move.
Trump Media said it expects that each shareholder will be given one token per whole share owned, with “various rewards being made available to token holders periodically throughout the year” that could include “benefits or discounts tied to Trump Media products such as Truth Social, Truth+, and Truth Predict.”
Further details are expected to be made available in 2026.
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Oil headed for largest annual loss since start of the pandemic
Oil prices are headed for their largest yearly loss since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 as a wave of global oversupply has significantly depressed prices.
Futures on Brent crude oil (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, have shed roughly 17% since the start of year, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) has lost a slightly greater 18%.
Between April and December, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased monthly production by 2.9 million barrels per day as Saudi Arabia sought to retake market share and price control from the West. In the US, the federal Energy Information Administration expects domestic oil inventories to continue building through 2026 as well, and other exporting countries in the Americas have maintained or raised their own production levels.
The International Energy Agency is now pegging 2026’s oversupply at a level of 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd). Strategists at JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have set price targets in the $50s per barrel for Brent crude, with a potential for a drop into the $30s or $40s per barrel if OPEC — which has announced a pause in production target changes through the first quarter — does not change course.
Halfway through December, Brent prices slipped below $59, and WTI prices fell below $55 to hit both products’ lowest price since 2021.
At the same time, the amount of oil on the water, sitting in tankers, has ballooned to more than 1 billion barrels’ worth, which does not count toward global supply until the oil is landed.
Of note: 2025’s price action likely would have happened if not for several geopolitical developments that have tightened or threatened to tighten the market.
Continued stagnation in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine prompted the US Treasury Department to place stiff sanctions on Russia’s oil exports, and a blockade of oil tankers moving in or out of Venezuela by the US military has also applied upward pressure on prices.
China, which had largely supported prices throughout the first half of the year by buying far more oil than its domestic needs, is now expanding its production, in a possible signal that Beijing will continue to fill its stores and help to alleviate some of the global overhang.
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US stocks waver Wednesday morning to open last trading session of the year
The US stock market wavered in the first minutes of trading on Wednesday as Wall Street looked to step out of an eventful, roller-coaster trading year with sizable gains and into 2026.
The blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed roughly 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) held just barely below flat after briefly crossing into the green.
Initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 27, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Wednesday morning, fell to 199,000 from the previous week’s revised 215,000 claims. Continuing claims fell to 1.86 million from 1.91 million.
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Jobless claims fall to 199,000 in surprise to the downside
Initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 27 fell by 16,000 from the previous week to 199,000 in the last major economic data indicator of the year.
The figures come as a surprise to the downside for Wall Street. Economists had predicted that claims would rise to 218,000 from 214,000, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Continuing claims, which count the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits, also fell to 1.86 million from 1.91 million in another surprise to the downside. Economists had predicted the level would fall less steeply to 1.90 million.
The four-week moving average of claims ticked upward to 218,750 from last week’s 217,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data release. Claims for the previous week ended Dec. 20 were revised to 215,000 from the originally stated 214,000.
The data release seemed to have little-to-no impact on predictions of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its January meeting, with traders continuing to price in an 85% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch.
Though the Fed’s dual mandate focuses on both maximum employment and stable prices, the Jay Powell-chaired body spent 2025 largely basing its cues on the labor market over inflation data.
The unemployment data release marks the last major piece of economic data that will be published in 2025.
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Sugar headed for largest annual decline in 8 years
Sugar (SB=F) prices are headed for their largest annual decline since 2017 as ample production around the world has pushed supply over demand.
The primary futures contract for sugar futures traded in New York, Sugar has shed roughly 21% in what has been largely a tough year for agricultural commodities.
Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of the sweetener commodity, has maintained high production levels, while fellow powerhouse India has managed to notch a comeback in its production after seeing levels fall sharply last year due to adverse weather conditions.
Elsewhere in the agricultural world, other “soft” commodities like cocoa, potatoes, and rice have all seen their prices plunge.
Futures contracts on cocoa (CC=F) and rice have fallen by 48% and 32%, respectively, while prices on potatoes have shed more than 77% since the year started, according to pricing data from Trading Economics.
Livestock and coffee have been notable exceptions to that rule. Feeder cattle and live cattle have gained 33% and 20%, respectively, since the year began, while coffee (KC=F) futures have picked up 10%.
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US dollar set for worst year since 2017
The US dollar (DX-Y.NYB) edged lower on Wednesday, set to cap off its weakest year since 2017, as President Trump’s tariff agenda fuels concerns about the US economy and a more dovish Federal Reserve in 2026 adds pressure to the greenback.
The dollar index has dropped over 9% year to date, according to Yahoo Finance data. Strategists broadly think that weakness will persist next year as many of the worries that drove it lower remain in play.
The story was different for the euro (^XDE), which gained 13%, and the pound (^XDB), which gained 7% on the year. Both currencies are on track for their biggest yearly gains in eight years.
Bloomberg reports:
Read more here.
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The market’s biggest winners and losers in 2025
Bloomberg’s Carmen Reinicke has a good look today at some of the market’s biggest winners and losers this year.
Some are familiar — Palantir (PLTR) is prominently featured as a winner, for instance. Others might turn heads. Did you know that Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), and Seagate Technology (STX) were three of the top four performers in the S&P 500 this year?
Read the full rundown here.
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Recapping a wild year in markets
Our Myles Udland is out with a great recap of the year in markets, featuring a month-by-month look at 2025’s biggest stories and market-moving events.
He writes:
There’s a lot more in there. Go read it.
