Trump’s trade war is a gift to showman Macron

view original post

Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have reacted differently to the imposition of Donald Trump’s 10 per cent tariffs on exports from Britain and seven other European nations.

The Prime Minister adopted a softly-softly approach with the American president, saying on Monday morning that a trade war is in “nobody’s interest”. The president of France, meanwhile, wants to take a “trade bazooka” to the US.

This bazooka is an Anti-Coercion Instrument that Macron believes is the right response to the tariffs imposed by Trump against those European nations which are most opposed to his takeover of Greenland. The Anti-Coercion Instrument allows the EU’s 27 nations to respond to domineering rivals by introducing tariffs and investment limits.

Macron underlined his determination to stand up to Trump with a message on social media. “Tariff threats are unacceptable,” wrote the president on X. “No intimidation or threat will influence us.”

For Macron, there is an element of the personal in his counter-offensive against his American counterpart. Trump seems to take a perverse delight in mocking Macron. He did it last October in front of world leaders at the Gaza peace conference. And last week Trump poked fun at Macron’s English accent in describing how he had pressured him to change drug prices under threat of a 25 per cent tariff.

But an impending trade war with Trump could be a godsend for Macron. He is at his performative best in times of crisis, using the instability and uncertainty to portray himself as the safest pair of hands in the country.

It was an act he deployed in 2018 during the Yellow Vest protest movement. Two years later he reprised the role when Covid swept through Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was the third occasion when Macron turned a crisis into an opportunity to boost his standing.

France went to the polls two months after Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine to elect a president but Macron wasn’t interested in talking about the failing economy, rising debt or rampant insecurity. He campaigned almost exclusively on the threat to Europe’s security posed by Russia.

The constitution precludes Macron from running for a third term next year but a trade war with Trump would help keep him relevant in his final 12 months in office. The American president has sidelined Macron and other European leaders on the questions of Gaza and the war in Ukraine.

A tiff with Trump would also be good news for Macron’s ailing centrist bloc, enabling them to rebuild their credibility on the issue of European unity.

In contrast, the deterioration in relations between Europe and the US is a problem for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. In an interview with the BBC last month the party’s number two, Jordan Bardella, said that he agreed for the most part with Trump’s declaration that mass immigration was erasing European civilisation. Now he and his party are scurrying to distance themselves from a president they see as a growing threat to French sovereignty.

Le Pen criticised America’s abduction of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro earlier this month, saying that “sovereignty of states is never negotiable, regardless of their size, power or continent”.

Responding to Trump’s 10 per cent tariff threat, Bardella said it amounted to “commercial blackmail” and consequently the EU should suspend last summer’s trade agreement with the US.

Ironically, Trump launched his tariff war on Europe on the same day that the EU signed the Mercosur trade agreement with a bloc of South American countries.

This contentious deal has done little for the European sovereignty that is so dear to Macron. It pits in particular French agriculture (a loser) against German industry (a winner). An estimated 1,000 French farmers are expected to protest outside the European Parliament in their tractors tomorrow when the Mercosur trade agreement is examined by MEPs.

Macron will try and turn the trade war with Trump to his advantage in the hope it will patch up some of the differences created by Mercosur. “Europeans will respond in a united and coordinated manner,” vowed the French president at the weekend.

That would be a first. Time and again this century Europe has shown itself incapable of a united response. Macron may want to use a bazooka against Trump but other European leaders will probably prefer to wave a white flag.

Try full access to The Telegraph free today. Unlock their award-winning website and essential news app, plus useful tools and expert guides for your money, health and holidays.