The Intel logo is visible at the India Mobile Congress 2025 in Delhi, India, on October 11, 2025. (Photo by Kabir Jhangiani/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
NurPhoto via Getty Images
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is anticipated to announce its earnings on Thursday, October 23, 2025. Expected earnings are projected to be around break-even at $0.01 per share, according to consensus estimates, while revenues are predicted to decrease by 1.5% to $13.1 billion. Intel has been facing significant challenges in its CPU segment due to ongoing market share losses to competitor AMD in both the server and client computing arenas. The broader shift in the market from CPUs to GPUs in the era of generative artificial intelligence has also affected the company’s performance. Nevertheless, we will be keenly awaiting updates regarding the foundry business, which has been increasing production of its latest 18A process technology. Intel recently revealed important details about its upcoming Panther Lake laptop chip, the first chip to be manufactured employing the new production process, aimed at high-end AI-enabled laptops.
Intel stock has surged by an impressive 80% year-to-date, largely propelled by substantial investment commitments from the U.S. government and GPU giant Nvidia. However, the stock typically performs poorly after its earnings announcements. Analyzing data from the past 5 years, the stock has registered positive returns in only 25% of instances one day following earnings.
The company currently holds a market capitalization of $165 billion. Over the past twelve months, the revenue reached $53 billion, although it reported an operational loss of $4.4 billion. While the outcome will significantly depend on how the results compare to expectations and consensus, being aware of historical trends might provide an advantage if you are a trader focused on events.
There are two approaches to consider: grasp the historical odds and position yourself before the earnings release, or examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term post-earnings returns and position accordingly after earnings are disclosed. If you desire upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
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Intel’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There have been 20 earnings data points documented over the last five years, resulting in 5 positive and 15 negative one-day (1D) returns. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 25% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage rises to 42% when examining data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 5 positive returns is 7.8%, whereas the median of the 15 negative returns is -7.0%
Further details regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post-earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
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Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader could take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data derived from a 5-year and a more recent 3-year history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and consequent 5D returns.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can impact the stock’s reaction post-earnings. In fact, price adjustments might start occurring before the earnings announcement. Here is some historical data regarding the past post-earnings performance of Intel stock compared to the stock movements of peers that reported earnings just prior to Intel. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
Correlation With Peer Earnings
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