US-China Relations in the Trump 2.0 Era: A Timeline

On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. His return to the White House signals a shift in US-China relations. Building on the aggressive stance of his first term, Trump 2.0 is expected to challenge China with a more transactional and unpredictable approach. The economic, security, and diplomatic consequences of his policies will not only reshape US-China ties but also influence the broader global geopolitical landscape.

Trump is expected to intensify the trade confrontations that defined his first administration, potentially escalating tariffs and sanctioning Chinese companies in an effort to achieve greater economic self-sufficiency. However, his focus on America’s immediate interests may leave little room for long-term strategic alliances, making his policy more difficult to predict. As Trump looks to navigate his second term amid a tumultuous political backdrop, China will need to adapt quickly to a US president who is more focused on leveraging short-term victories than on pursuing traditional diplomatic strategies.

This timeline will track the key developments in US-China relations under Trump 2.0, examining the potential consequences for China’s economy and other key aspects, while offering insights into the strategies that both Washington and Beijing will adopt in the face of a renewed geopolitical rivalry.

US-China relations in the Trump 2.0 era

January 20, 2025 – Trump’s second term begins with a focus on US-China trade relations

President Donald Trump marked the start of his second term with a broad trade policy directive, prioritizing a methodical review of the United States trade relationships, including a sharp focus on China. While no immediate tariffs were announced, the administration signaled its intention to evaluate Beijing’s adherence to the 2020 trade agreement and address trade imbalances.

Key developments include:

• Trade memo announcement: The memo, issued shortly after Trump’s inauguration, directs federal agencies to scrutinize trade deficits and unfair practices by major trading partners, with China being a key focus.
• 2020 trade deal under review: Trump’s directive includes assessing China’s compliance with the 2020 deal, which required Beijing to increase purchases of US goods by US$200 billion annually—a commitment largely unmet due to the pandemic.
• Avoiding immediate tariffs: Contrary to campaign rhetoric promising steep tariffs on Chinese imports, the administration appears to be taking a more strategic approach. Analysts suggest this could calm financial markets in the short term.
• Universal tariff expected: Trade experts believe Trump remains committed to imposing a global tariff as part of his economic agenda. The administration is expected to invoke statutes like Section 232 or Section 301 for future trade actions. Trump’s measured approach to tariffs suggests a possible window for negotiations, but the administration’s broader goals—such as pushing China to fulfill its trade commitments—may lead to renewed tensions. The directive reinforces the administration’s intent to hold China accountable for practices perceived as unfair, maintaining pressure in line with Trump’s first-term trade strategy.

This measured start to Trump’s second term reflects his administration’s continued focus on reshaping US-China trade ties, signaling challenges ahead for the bilateral relationship.

January 20, 2025 – Trump signs executive action to delay TikTok ban for 75 days

On January 20, 2025, former President Donald Trump signed an executive order to delay the enforcement of a TikTok ban for an additional 75 days.

Under the terms of the executive order, the U.S. Department of Justice will refrain from enforcing the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which had been passed with broad bipartisan support in Congress and signed into law by former President Joe Biden in April 2024. The Act required TikTok to either sell its U.S. operations to an American or allied buyer or face a ban, effective January 19, 2025.

Prior to his inauguration, Trump had pledged on social media to take executive action to prevent the law from taking effect. Following this announcement, TikTok restored access for existing users after the app had been offline for more than 12 hours from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon.

It remains unclear whether TikTok will be able to continue operating in the U.S. after the 75-day delay. However, the extension provides TikTok’s China-based parent, ByteDance, with additional time to secure a potential buyer for the platform at least.

January 20, 2025 – Trump comments on reclaiming Panama Canal, references manifest destiny for space exploration

On January 20, 2025, newly inaugurated President Donald Trump stated that the United States would take back control of the Panama Canal. During his inauguration speech, Trump reiterated his accusation that Panama had broken promises made during the 1999 transfer of the canal and had allegedly allowed China to gain influence over its operation. He remarked, “We didn’t give it to China. We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back.” Although he did not specify when or how the US would pursue this goal, he previously suggested that military action could be a possibility, a comment that has drawn attention from both supporters and critics.

Trump’s statement on the Panama Canal was part of a wider discussion of his views on US territorial expansion. He invoked the concept of “Manifest Destiny,” historically associated with 19th-century US territorial expansion, and linked it to future goals for space exploration, specifically stating that the US would eventually aim to land astronauts on Mars. Some critics have expressed concerns that such rhetoric might encourage other countries, like Russia and China, to pursue more assertive actions in their respective geopolitical situations. Others have speculated that Trump’s statements may be a strategic move to set a strong negotiating position.

In his speech, Trump also reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America and expressed dissatisfaction with the transfer of the Panama Canal, calling it a “foolish gift.” His administration’s criticisms are based on claims of unfair treatment, particularly regarding shipping costs, though Panama has denied any unfair practices and emphasized that all vessels are treated equally, including those from China. While China does not control the canal itself, a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings manages two ports near the canal’s Caribbean and Pacific entrances, which has been a point of contention in US-China relations.

The Panama Canal is a crucial waterway for both global trade and the US, playing a key role in the transportation of goods from Asia and in the export of US energy resources. Following Trump’s remarks, Panama’s maritime authority announced an audit of the Panama Ports Company, which manages the ports near the canal.

January 20, 2025 – Elon Musk and China’s Vice President meet ahead of Trump’s second term

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s meeting with China’s Vice President Han Zheng in Washington, D.C., ahead of Donald Trump’s second-term inauguration, has sparked fresh speculation about Musk’s role in shaping US-China relations. According to Chinese state media, Han invited US firms, including Tesla, to deepen investments in China and strengthen economic ties. Musk reportedly reaffirmed Tesla’s commitment to expanding cooperation with China, a vital market that accounts for nearly a quarter of the company’s revenue and hosts its most productive manufacturing hub in Shanghai.

The timing of the meeting, alongside broader discussions with US business leaders, suggests China’s intent to stabilize relations with the US while maintaining economic partnerships. Musk, whose business interests are deeply tied to China, has been described as a potential intermediary between the Trump administration and the Chinese government. This comes amid unresolved tensions over trade and technology, including speculation around Musk’s involvement in a possible TikTok joint venture.

As Trump prepares to recalibrate trade policies, the meeting underscores the critical intersection of business diplomacy and geopolitics in US-China relations.