Dec 26 : Major U.S. stock indexes oscillated around record peaks on Friday in muted post-Christmas trading, while expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and safe haven appeal pushed precious metals prices to all-time highs.
Public holidays kept markets closed in Australia, Hong Kong and most of Europe, but the bourses that were open pushed towards ending the year in positive territory, with Asian stocks rising to multi-week highs in their trading session earlier.
The benchmark S&P 500 was last down 0.03 per cent on the day in New York, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.18 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.07 per cent, with all three set for double-digit yearly gains.
Megacap tech companies have driven the S&P 500 higher in 2025, and investors have been branching out to cyclical sectors including financials and materials, broadening the upswing and leaving the main U.S. indexes set for a third straight year of gains.
Data suggesting the U.S. economy is resilient, paired with the possibility that a new central bank chair to replace Jerome Powell could look to cut rates next year, is supporting markets. Recent pressure on AI stocks stemming from concerns over high valuations and profit-sapping capital expenditures has also lessened.
Traders watched for a “Santa Claus rally” which is declared if the S&P 500 advances through the last five trading days of the current year and the first two in January. This would be considered a good omen for stocks in 2026 after a volatile year.
Geopolitical tensions enhanced the safe-haven appeal of precious metals the day after the U.S. carried out airstrikes against Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria. Silver hit an all-time high of $77.4 per ounce, on a 167 per cent year-to-date surge, supported by supply deficits and the metal’s designation as a U.S. critical mineral.
A weakening dollar further burnished dollar-denominated gold for overseas investors, helping to send an ounce up 0.98 per cent to $4,523.
Soojin Kim, commodities analyst at MUFG, said in a note the rally could continue, supported by “major banks forecasting further gains into 2026, the strength of physical demand and persistent geopolitical and monetary uncertainties.”
Oil prices settled more than 2 per cent lower, dragged down by the prospect of a global supply glut and possible progress on a Ukraine peace deal.
DOLLAR’S DECEMBER BLUES
Investors are preparing for 2026 focused on when the U.S. Federal Reserve might further cut rates and by how much, with traders pricing in at least two cuts over the year, although they do not expect the Fed to move before June.
The central bank has projected one more cut next year but divisions among decision makers has left investors on edge about the policy outlook.
Markets are also waiting for President Donald Trump to nominate a Fed chair to replace Powell, whose term ends in May. Any signal of what Trump will decide could sway markets in the coming week.
The U.S. dollar has been under pressure as a result, pushing the euro, sterling and the Swiss franc to highs. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, rose 0.08 per cent to 98.02 on Friday.
The Japanese yen softened against the dollar as investors remained on watch for potential intervention to shore up the currency. Analysts say year-end trading, when volumes are thin, provide an opportunity for authorities to take action.
The yen has weakened despite the Bank of Japan delivering a well-telegraphed interest rate hike last week. Data on Friday showed that core consumer inflation in Japan’s capital slowed in December but stayed above the central bank’s 2 per cent target, bolstering the case for further rate hikes.