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Mortgage rates have changed a lot in recent years. At one of their highest points, in October 2023, 30-year fixed rates climbed to 7.79%, which pushed millions of would-be buyers out of the market. Since then, a combination of six Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 1.75%, cooling inflation and declining Treasury yields have slowly brought rates down. As of February 25, 2026, it’s possible to secure a 30-year rate under 6% for qualified borrowers.
With no Fed meeting in February, borrowers haven’t had much to hang their hopes on. While the central bank doe not directly set mortgage interest rates, its policy decisions can have a broad influence on the overall market. The bank meets again on March 17 and 18, and experts generally expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to hold interest rates at their current target range of 3.50% to 3.75%.
So, how will these factors influence mortgage interest rates this month? And where could mortgage interest rates be headed as the year progresses? We asked some experts for their predictions.
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What’s the mortgage interest rate forecast for March 2026?
The experts we spoke to generally anticipate mortgage rates holding steady or dipping modestly in March. They anticipate the same factors that have been gradually pushing rates down continuing to do so. Those factors include a gradual decline in the 10-year Treasury yield and a fall in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2.7% in December to 2.4% in January. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has been holding rates steady as they look for clearer economic signals.
“I would expect that mortgage rates would stay pretty steady over March 2026,” says Mark Schweitzer, associate professor of economics at Case Western Reserve University. “There is an FOMC meeting, but market expectations favor no change in the Fed funds rate. The most important data will be the upcoming CPI report on March 11.”
Andrew Postell, sales manager and VP of mortgage lending at Rate.com, notes that rates may not look like they’re moving in the short term, but the cumulative shift over time has been significant.
“Mortgage rates have been decreasing incrementally over the past two years or so. Week-to-week, it may not seem like a lot, but add it up over time, and the savings are substantial. We are nearly two points lower on the average interest rate from October 2023.”
The Fed meeting in March will surely draw plenty of attention, but Ralph DiBugnara, founder and president of Home Qualified, says borrowers should focus on what the Fed says, not just its policy decisions.
“What most don’t realize is that it’s not the actual cut or raise of interest rates by the Fed that’s most important, but how they are forecasting the future. If the commentary post meeting is that the economy is showing signs of leveling out and coming down, there’s a good chance the feds can look towards the policy of cutting in the future,” DiBugnara says.
The conversation around mortgage rates has changed in recent months as the question of whether rates could reach 6% has effectively been answered. As mentioned, average rates nationwide now sit below 6%.
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So, where do mortgage interest rates go from here?
The experts we consulted project rates to remain firmly in the neighborhood of 6%, with some room on either side depending on the economic data we see in March.
Schweitzer anticipates an average rate range of “roughly 5.9% to 6.3%, unless the data surprises us.” He doesn’t anticipate a sub-6% average rates being the norm in March. “30-year fixed rates realistically dropping below 6% in March is not the most likely outcome, but 30-year mortgage rates are only a little bit above 6% now. If inflation came in low or employment growth was weak, that could cause a large enough dip in Treasuries to reach a mortgage rate below 6%,” he says.
DiBugnara’s projection range is a bit wider, factoring in the possibility of more volatility. “Realistically, I see 5.75% to 6.25% on a 30-year fixed-rate for averages. That range reflects mild improvement potential, but also room for volatility if economic data surprises,” he says.
The bottom line
While it’s important to understand where mortgage rates are headed, buyers should be cautious if trying to time the market. After all, unexpected economic indicators and geopolitical events could easily disrupt any well-reasoned projection. Ultimately, if you find a home that fits your needs and budget, you may need to act fast. Locking in a rate now allows you to make an offer before rates or home prices rise. Besides, you can always refinance later if rates drop closer to 5%. If you anticipate rates could drop while you’re in escrow, ask your lender about getting a floating rate that adjusts down if rates fall before closing.