S&P 500 Risk Profile: January 18, 2023

Busienss man"s hand and "S&P 500" word on American national flag background


The US stock market has stabilized recently and trades moderately above its recent low. The recovery inspires hope that the worst is over. Maybe, but a review of various metrics suggests that there’s a good case for staying defensive until stronger evidence

S&P 500 Large Cap Index

Equity Risk Appetite

S&P 500 Sentiment Momentum Index

S&P 500 Drawdown History

S&P 500 Bear Market Probability Estimates

S&P 500 1-Year Return vs. 36-mo p-values

Shiller PE Ratio